The Hungarian Forint has demonstrated resilience against the euro, trading in a narrow range as financial institutions including ING and Commerzbank update their outlooks. ING analysts indicate that the market has already fully priced in the National Bank of Hungary's (MNB) anticipated easing cycle, suggesting limited further depreciation from monetary policy alone. The EUR/HUF pair has remained around 390–395, reflecting stability.
According to Commerzbank, softer-than-expected CPI data for the latest month has opened the door for additional rate cuts. Core inflation moderated faster than forecast, giving the central bank room to ease its stance. Hungary’s key interest rate currently stands at 6.50% after cuts exceeding 400 basis points since late 2023. The MNB’s predictable communication could cushion the Forint against sharp losses even as yields decline, reducing the currency's carry trade appeal.
Looking ahead, the forint’s trajectory will hinge on broader economic fundamentals—such as fiscal consolidation, external balances, and global risk sentiment. Both banks agree that unless unexpected shocks materialize, the currency is likely to stay range-bound. For businesses and investors, this outlook reduces short-term currency risk while shifting attention to Hungary’s growth outlook and upcoming MNB communications.
