Analyst Dumps XRP, Predicts Drop Below $1 Before $10 Rally; On-Chain Data Points to Liquidation-Driven Sell-Off

3 hour ago 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • On-chain data suggests XRP’s drop stems from liquidations, not whale exits, easing supply pressure.
  • A strategist’s sale above $2.85 but $1 re-entry target shows short-term caution amid long-term conviction.
  • Leverage-driven declines risk rapid rebounds if funding resets, making $1.8-$2 attainable on demand recovery.

XRP’s prolonged decline, down nearly 50% over the past year and erasing most of its 2024 gains, has prompted mixed reactions from investors. Crypto strategist Bobby A revealed that he sold the majority of his XRP holdings above $2.85, citing a “nasty-looking monthly” chart as the reason. Despite the sale, he remains bullish on the token’s long-term prospects, maintaining that a surge to $10 is still realistic.

However, Bobby A is in no rush to re-enter. He plans to wait until XRP falls below $1—a further decline of at least 10% from current levels—before accumulating again. This cautious stance aligns with a broader market sentiment that sees more downside risk, but the strategist’s conviction around the $10 target remains unshaken. Pseudonymous analyst Celal Kucuker, whose post sparked the discussion, echoed that optimistic timeline, projecting that XRP could reach the $10 mark between December 2025 and February 2027, implying a potential 1,000% rally from current levels.

Meanwhile, a separate on-chain analysis challenges the narrative that the recent sell-off is being driven by whale distribution. CryptoQuant contributor Pelin Ay shared data tracking XRP Ledger exchange inflows to Binance, broken down by value bands. The chart shows that transfers exceeding 1 million XRP—typically associated with whales and institutional wallets—have notably declined after XRP’s peak near $3. Historically, such large inflows have dominated during periods of heavy selling, but the current data lacks the sharp spikes seen before previous major drops.

Ay argues that the absence of a surge in the 100,000–1 million XRP and 1 million+ XRP bands suggests that aggressive whale selling and mass profit-taking are not the primary forces behind the current price weakness. Instead, she attributes the decline to leverage liquidations and overall market fragility. “In normal hard bear markets, much higher XRP inflows to exchanges are typically seen,” she noted. The cooling of large inflows could ease spot supply pressure, and if this structure holds—particularly if the 1 million+ XRP columns remain muted—a recovery toward the $1.8–$2.0 region could become more likely, provided demand returns. At the time of writing, XRP trades around $1.1444, leaving traders closely watching both on-chain metrics and technical levels for the next move.

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