Two prominent on-chain analyses painted opposing pictures of Bitcoin’s market stress this week, stirring debate about whether the flagship cryptocurrency is undergoing capitulation or merely facing a demand-driven correction. Axel Adler Jr., in his June 10 Adler AM Bitcoin Morning Brief, argued that Bitcoin’s Realized Cap and adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) both point to a capitulation regime. Meanwhile, market analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera contended that the typical panic selling associated with major bottoms remains absent, even as BTC approached its historically critical realized price.
Adler highlighted that Bitcoin’s Realized Cap—the aggregate on-chain cost basis—had contracted by approximately $12 billion from its mid-May peak, falling from $1.087 trillion to $1.075 trillion. The 30-day percentage change in Realized Cap dropped to -1.1%, the deepest reading since mid-March. “Capital is leaving the Bitcoin network, and participant behavior confirms a capitulation regime – sales are being made at a loss,” Adler wrote. The aSOPR metric, which tracks profit or loss on moved coins, further underscored the stress: it broke below the 1.0 threshold on May 28 and has stayed there for 13 consecutive days, currently at 0.987—implying an average loss of 1.3% per coin. Adler noted that the pace of outflows is comparable to the early stages of the March capitulation, when the Realized Cap measure reached -2.4%, leaving room for further deterioration. He identified a regime change only if aSOPR reclaims 1.0 and Realized Cap outflows stabilize near zero.
Perera, however, pointed to the realized price—the average cost basis across all circulating BTC, currently around $53,600—which Bitcoin approached within 9% during last week’s sell-off. In past cycles like 2018 and 2022, BTC bounced sharply after touching this level, accompanied by a massive flush of weak hands. In 2022, holders sold 1.2 million BTC at a loss; last week’s loss-taking volume was only 187,000 BTC, indicating far less panic. “Bitcoin reached the bottom’s address without the bottom’s behavior,” Perera stated. He attributed the decline to evaporating demand rather than rampant selling, citing a 652,000 BTC drop in demand—the worst since January 2022—and heavy outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. The gloomy backdrop includes geopolitical turmoil (Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. strikes) boosting oil prices and a higher-than-expected U.S. CPI of 4.2%, which dashed hopes for Fed rate cuts and raised the specter of further hikes.
Yet, the lack of aggressive selling might also be read as a bullish signal. Perera noted that the realized price has marked four of the last four major bottoms, and long-term holders now control a record 16.5 million BTC, showing no inclination to sell despite many positions being underwater. Grayscale added that Bitcoin appears undervalued, though not yet at extreme bear-market lows. At press time, BTC traded at $61,828, down sharply from recent highs but still well above the realized price floor. The conflicting signals leave traders weighing whether a final capitulation wave is imminent or if the market is already building a more resilient base.
