Bitcoin miners are under mounting financial strain, with the widely followed Puell Multiple falling from 0.83 in late May to 0.74, according to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. The metric, which compares the daily dollar value of newly minted coins to its 365‑day moving average, has been declining for two weeks and the raw daily reading hit as low as 0.58, reflecting a sharp compression in miners’ revenue.
At the cycle’s peak, when Bitcoin traded above $120,000, the Puell 30‑day moving average stood at 1.33. By contrast, the 2022 bear market bottom saw the indicator plunge to 0.45 and the December 2018 trough reached 0.33. Adler identifies 0.50 as the key capitulation threshold, a level that historically triggered mass equipment shutdowns and restructurings among publicly traded miners. While the current 0.74 reading signals “moderate pressure,” it remains well above those crisis lows.
Another warning signal is the Price‑to‑Miner‑Revenue Multiple, which has retreated from a peak of 160 to 80. That level matches the range seen in November 2021, after the euphoria had cooled but before undervaluation set in. To generate a structural floor signal, this metric would need to fall toward 40–50, a zone reached only at the depths of the 2022 (33) and 2019 (15) cycles.
Bitcoin’s price has fallen 21% since the last Difficulty Bottom, surpassing the 15% alert threshold and raising the specter of forced selling by miners. In 2022, the worst reading reached -39%. Should the price continue to slide, the Puell 30‑day moving average could approach the 0.50 level by late June, potentially triggering another wave of miner distress. Conversely, a rally above $70,000 would likely relieve the pressure and reset healthier revenue conditions.
Adler emphasizes that none of the three metrics — Puell Multiple, Price‑to‑Miner‑Revenue Multiple, and the Miner Capitulation indicator — has yet reached the extreme capitulation marks of past bear cycles. The market is currently in a phase of moderate stress, and the direction of these indicators will be crucial for Bitcoin’s near‑term outlook.
