Bitcoin’s recent price action is offering subtle signals that the intense selling pressure may be starting to fade, according to two separate analyses. While the broader market trend remains bearish, a key technical pattern and a shift in spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows both point to diminishing downward momentum.
Bullish divergence on the weekly RSI
Real Vision crypto market analyst Jamie Coutts identified a bullish divergence on Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI). This occurs when the asset’s price makes a lower low, but the RSI — a momentum oscillator — forms a higher low. Last week, Bitcoin retested its February low, but the RSI held at a comparatively higher level. Coutts noted that this is the opposite of the bearish divergence observed last September, which preceded further declines.
“Historically, such divergences suggest selling momentum is slowing, even if a final bottom hasn’t been reached,” Coutts explained, pointing to similar patterns that appeared during the 2015, 2019, and 2022 bear markets before major trend reversals. However, he cautioned that the overall trend remains bearish across all major timeframes and that the divergence is an early warning, not a confirmation of a bottom.
ETF outflows decelerating
In parallel, the pace of redemptions from spot Bitcoin ETFs is easing. Adam Hames, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, told Decrypt that while selling pressure has not fully stabilized, it is gradually abating. He attributed the recent outflows to two structural factors: the unwinding of arbitrage positions between spot ETFs and Bitcoin futures, and a rotation out of the highest-fee ETF product into lower-cost alternatives.
Hames stressed that these flows do not reflect a wholesale collapse in investor confidence. “The capital flight has been concentrated in specific ETFs, while others continue to see net inflows,” he said, underscoring that investor behavior is driven by product-specific, time-limited dynamics rather than a rejection of Bitcoin exposure.
What it means for the market
The combination of a technical signal suggesting slowing momentum and structural outflows running their course removes one layer of downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. However, analysts remain cautious: the bearish trend is still dominant, and macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and regulation will likely dictate the next major move. For long-term investors, the current environment may present an accumulation opportunity, while short-term traders are expected to wait for a confirmed trend reversal.
