Bitcoin has fallen sharply to touch its 200-week simple moving average, a historically significant long-term support level, sparking debate on whether the level will hold. The flagship cryptocurrency briefly dipped to $61,556, coming into direct contact with the widely watched technical indicator currently around $61,840. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin is down 5%, with a weekly loss exceeding 13%.
Amid this volatile price action, David Hoffman, co-founder of crypto media platform Bankless, offered a measured perspective. He stated that Bitcoin is unlikely to break below its 200-week moving average, contrasting current conditions with the 2022 crisis when the only previous breach occurred. “The only time Bitcoin traded below its 200-week MA was after the cascading collapses of Terra, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX—the worst crisis contagion in crypto history,” Hoffman noted. He argued that the present market structure, characterized by deeper institutional adoption and less systemic leverage, differs fundamentally from that deleveraging spiral.
Hoffman also directly addressed fears surrounding MicroStrategy’s (now Strategy) STRC perpetual preferred stock issuance, which some fear could introduce selling pressure on Bitcoin. He dismissed these concerns as not comparable to the 2022 catalyst, underscoring that the current drawdown lacks the same contagion risks.
However, the immediate backdrop is stark. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled over $3 billion in net outflows over the past 10 days, marking the longest streak of capital withdrawals since their launch. Institutional demand, which once absorbed selling during the 2025 rally, has evaporated. Compounding the pain, liquidations of long positions topped $822 million in 24 hours, with forced selling triggering a self-reinforcing downward spiral that accelerated the market decline.
The 200-week moving average now serves as a critical make-or-break level. A sustained hold could signal a stabilization phase, while a decisive breakdown would likely shift focus to lower supports beneath $60,000. Hoffman’s analysis suggests the former is more probable, reinforcing the view that Bitcoin’s long-term trend remains resilient despite near-term turbulence.
