A new report from BIT Research (formerly Matrixport) suggests that Bitcoin’s ongoing bear market may be entering its final phase, with a potential bottom forming around the 2026 FIFA World Cup, scheduled from June 11 to July 19. According to the June 12 analysis, a combination of technical patterns, weak market sentiment, and easing inflation pressure could set the stage for the next major BTC recovery after months of decline.
The report outlines an A-B-C corrective structure that has been in place since the bear market began in October 2025. Wave A drove Bitcoin down into the $60,000–$69,000 range, followed by a Wave B rebound that pushed prices toward $80,000–$90,000 and peaked near $83,000 in mid-May before fading. The market has now entered Wave C, with a target bottom zone between $50,000 and $55,000, and the World Cup period is highlighted as the most likely timeframe for that low.
On the sentiment front, BIT notes that the Greed & Fear Index has returned to historically depressed levels reminiscent of the 2022 cycle bottom. Technical indicators reinforce the bearish picture: the stochastic indicator is deeply oversold, and Bitcoin is trading at least two standard deviations below its weekly moving average. The report flags $61,576 as a potential support level and points to Bitcoin’s Realized Price—currently around $54,591—as a key threshold where the asset tends to be undervalued, with a note that prices rarely stay below this level for long.
Macro conditions play a central role. BIT draws a direct parallel to 2022, when cooling inflation helped mark the cycle bottom, and argues that a similar deceleration in inflation without a severe recession could be crucial. The report cautions that the market may still need one to three months before a confirmed reversal appears.
Bitcoin has endured a rough stretch: after rejection near $73,000 at the start of June, it tumbled through $70,000, then $65,000, and briefly lost the $60,000 support, hitting a nearly two-year low just above $59,000 last Friday before recovering to around $63,000. At publication time, it had slipped back below $63,000, down over 22% in 30 days and almost 42% year-on-year. Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have exacerbated volatility.
While not a precise price prediction, BIT’s analysis uses the World Cup as a temporal anchor for when market conditions could align for a bottom. The firm stresses that patience is required and that investors should watch for confirmation signals in the coming months.
