On-chain indicators are flashing potential bottom signals for Bitcoin, but a sustained recovery still depends on two critical metrics reclaiming key thresholds, according to analysis from CryptoQuant.
Analyst MorenoDV has identified the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) and the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) as the pivotal indicators for Bitcoin’s next major price move. Both metrics are currently approaching levels historically associated with market turning points, yet confirmation of a durable rebound remains elusive.
The STH MVRV has descended into the 0.75 to 0.80 range, a zone that often marks periods where short-term holders are underwater and weaker participants exit. However, MorenoDV warns that since 2024, each recovery has produced lower highs and lower lows in this metric, signaling gradually weakening buying momentum and growing caution among investors.
Meanwhile, the seven-day moving average of aSOPR is nearing 0.96, a seller-exhaustion level seen during previous major declines. Despite these oversold conditions, the analyst stresses that a confirmed bottom requires both indicators to move back above 1.0 and maintain that position for several sessions. Until then, the market remains in a capitulation phase rather than a clear bullish regime.
Adding to the cautious picture, CryptoQuant’s latest demand data highlights significant weakness. Total Bitcoin demand fell by 652,000 BTC last week, while 30-day ETF demand growth dropped to negative 74,000 BTC. This fall in institutional and retail buying interest has placed persistent resistance on price recovery attempts.
On the valuation side, CryptoQuant pointed to Bitcoin’s realized price near $53,600 as a key support zone. The asset was trading roughly 9% above that level at around $62,838, according to CoinMarketCap. Realized losses remain below historic capitulation levels, reinforcing the view that a definitive cycle bottom has not yet been established.
Price action showed short-term resilience with a bounce from the $61,000 area up to the $62,400-$63,000 consolidation band, but lower trading volumes accompanied the move. The path forward depends on whether STH MVRV and aSOPR can clear the crucial profitability thresholds, alongside a meaningful pick-up in demand.
