When President Trump confirmed that planned U.S. strikes on Iran had been canceled, a wave of optimism flooded traditional financial markets. Stocks jumped, gold rallied, and crude oil slipped. According to Santiment, social media discussions around peace, ceasefires, and conflict resolution surged to their highest level this month. The shift in narrative was immediate—traders moved to price in a less disruptive geopolitical backdrop, potentially ending a macro overhang that has pressured risk assets throughout 2026.
Yet the crypto market barely stirred. Bitcoin and major altcoins moved little, even as the S&P 500 and gold posted sharp intraday gains. Santiment hinted that a delayed reaction might occur after U.S. markets close, as retail traders and algorithmic systems catch up to the macro shift. This setup has kept a short-term catch-up trade on the table.
Adding to the bullish narrative, Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, declared that the crypto market has likely seen its bottom. In a note on Friday, he wrote: “I think we have now seen the low in crypto asset prices. Winter is over.” Bitcoin’s recent drop to nearly $59,000—a 53% drawdown from its all-time high of $126,000 last October—marked the deepest freeze, he argued.
Kendrick pointed to two key catalysts for a turnaround: signs of a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal ahead of next week’s G7 summit, and SpaceX’s historic $1.75 trillion IPO. He noted that a resolution to the Middle Eastern conflict could end surging oil prices, which have driven U.S. Treasury yields higher and punished risk assets. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% on Friday to $86 per barrel.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs have suffered heavy outflows—roughly $5 billion since mid-May—some of which Kendrick believes may be tied to investors freeing up cash for the SpaceX IPO. Bitcoin recently changed hands above $64,000, up 5% over the past week, with total crypto market capitalization at $2.277 trillion.
Kendrick stressed that confirming the bottom requires net inflows for Bitcoin ETFs, a continued decline in oil prices, and a Monday announcement from Strategy that the firm has expanded its Bitcoin holdings. For now, the market waits to see whether crypto will finally catch up to the peace-driven rally in traditional assets.
