KeyBanc has issued a double upgrade for space stocks Rocket Lab (RKLB) and Firefly Aerospace (FLY), lifting both to Overweight from Sector Weight and setting ambitious price targets. Rocket Lab surged 6.5% to $102.39 on Monday, while Firefly rebounded about 5.4% in premarket trading after Friday’s sharp selloff.
The upgrade for Rocket Lab came with a $135 price target—implying roughly 40% upside—and coincides with the company’s upcoming addition to the Nasdaq-100 Index on June 22. Index inclusion is expected to generate significant demand from over 200 investment products that track the index, which collectively hold more than $800 billion in assets. KeyBanc highlighted Rocket Lab’s position as the second-largest commercial launch provider, with the Electron rocket completing around 90 successful missions. The Neutron rocket program remains on track for its debut launch later this year after a January anomaly was fully resolved.
For Firefly, the upgrade follows a $75 million MoonFall NASA contract that underscores the value of its Elytra spacecraft and strengthens its role in lunar base plans. KeyBanc raised its FY26 and FY27 revenue estimates in response. Firefly suffered a 19% drop on Friday as SpaceX’s highly anticipated IPO debut (shares surged 19% to $160.95) triggered a broad rotation out of smaller space names, including AST SpaceMobile (-16%), Intuitive Machines (-13%), and Rocket Lab (-11%). KeyBanc analysts called the selloff “unwarranted and largely systematic,” urging investors to buy the dip.
Rocket Lab’s Q1 revenue of $200.35 million beat estimates by 10.6% and grew 63.4% year-over-year, while institutional ownership stands at 71.78%. Firefly has posted 71% revenue growth over the last twelve months and is forecasting a 175% revenue surge for fiscal 2026. Both companies benefit from a launch market where demand outstrips supply and national security priorities are fueling the space economy. As SpaceX continues its march higher on Monday, the analyst upgrades signal a clear preference for well-capitalized commercial space players.
