CoreWeave Surges on Nasdaq-100 Inclusion and Bullish Analyst Projections

2 hour ago 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • CoreWeave's surging AI backlog suggests booming demand, potentially lifting AI-related tokens like FET and RNDR.
  • Institutional upgrades signal structural AI infrastructure growth, likely benefiting decentralized compute projects on Solana.
  • Massive debt issuance amid heavy capex may raise overinvestment concerns, injecting volatility into tech-linked crypto sectors.

CoreWeave (CRWV) shares jumped sharply on Tuesday, climbing as much as 10% after two catalysts reignited investor enthusiasm. The AI-focused cloud provider will be added to the Nasdaq-100 index before the market opens on June 22, as part of the June 2026 quarterly rebalance. Such inclusion typically triggers buying from index-tracking funds that must align with the benchmark, and the stock will join alongside Astera Labs, Nebius Group, Rocket Lab, and Teradyne.

Simultaneously, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brett Knoblauch reiterated an Overweight rating and a $167 price target, citing overlooked details in a recent bond offering memorandum. According to Knoblauch, the filing revealed a run-rate EBITDA of $18.758 billion, up from $16.098 billion in April. Using these metrics, he estimates CoreWeave’s backlog could have reached $125 billion by early June and potentially $131 billion by quarter-end on June 30 — well above Wall Street’s consensus of $104.4 billion and the previous quarter’s $99.4 billion. “As such, we get the sense that CoreWeave could be gearing up for a sizable beat when it comes to backlog,” Knoblauch wrote, adding that the market is “woefully undervaluing” the company.

Further bullishness came from Macquarie, which last week upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral, raising its price target from $90 to $125. The firm highlighted partnerships with Meta and OpenAI as evidence that CoreWeave is becoming a structural player in AI infrastructure. The filing also disclosed projected gross debt of $68.5 billion and net debt of $58.3 billion, tied to heavy capital spending. Meanwhile, CoreWeave priced a private offering of $1.25 billion in 9.625% senior notes and €2 billion in 8.500% senior notes due 2032. Options activity ahead of the June 26 expiration indicated traders expect further upside. By Tuesday morning, CRWV traded at $104.59, up 7.38%, above its major moving averages.

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