Goldman Sachs has cut its year-end gold price target by $500 an ounce, lowering the forecast to $4,900 from $5,400. The revision came as the investment bank no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2026, pushing its outlook for easing into 2027. The Fed kept its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% on June 17, with Chair Kevin Warsh striking a hawkish tone that boosted the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.
Gold is on track for its third consecutive weekly decline, with spot gold falling around 1.8% to $4,134 on Friday. A stronger dollar makes bullion more expensive for non‑US buyers, while higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding the non‑yielding metal. Commodity analysts at Goldman said their view remains “structurally constructive but tactically cautious,” emphasizing near‑term downside risk.
Bitcoin is facing the same liquidity headwind. A delayed rate‑cut cycle reduces liquidity and makes cash and bonds more attractive relative to risk assets. Bitcoin fell toward $63,000 after stronger U.S. jobless claims data reinforced the hawkish outlook, and it had already slipped toward $65,000 ahead of the Fed decision as traders cut exposure. Rising bond yields have also pressured crypto‑linked equities.
Nine of the Fed’s 19 policymakers now expect at least one rate hike later this year, and futures markets price an over 80% probability of a year‑end increase. The hawkish shift overshadowed a brief safe‑haven bid that gold received from an interim US‑Iran peace deal, which later faced suspended negotiations in Switzerland. With inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target, both gold and Bitcoin remain sensitive to the trajectory of monetary policy.
