Bitcoin could be setting up for one final drop before forming a definitive cycle bottom, according to multiple analysts who point to technical patterns and on-chain data that have yet to flash conclusive bottom signals.
Crypto analyst Ted observed that Bitcoin appears likely to form another lower high, keeping the broader downtrend intact. On the two-day chart, BTC has broken below a rising trend line and key horizontal support near $75,000. A short-term recovery could culminate in a lower high beneath resistance, setting the stage for a sharp decline that might mark the cycle bottom. “If Bitcoin can reclaim the resistance zone and establish higher highs, the bearish outlook would weaken,” Ted noted.
Another analyst, CW, highlighted a long-term regression band that has historically signaled major bottoms. The logarithmic chart shows Bitcoin trading near the lower boundary of its growth channel—a zone that preceded bull markets after bear market lows in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022. While no specific timing is provided, CW described the current approach to this area as a “historical bottom signal.”
On-chain metrics reinforce the cautious stance. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. warned that the supply held by long-term Bitcoin holders has risen to approximately 12.17 million BTC—easing exchange selling pressure but still well below the 15–19.7 million BTC range seen at prior bear market floors. A key selling pressure indicator tracking capitulation events remains dormant for 1,256 days, meaning the final wave of distressed sellers has yet to exit. “The market is in a redistribution and consolidation phase, not a completed bottom,” Adler said.
For a confirmed bottom, Adler outlined two conditions: long-term holder supply must surpass 15 million BTC, and the selling pressure indicator must activate, signaling a capitulation event. Until then, further downside remains possible before a sustainable recovery can begin.
