Bitcoin’s recent bounce following the US-Iran interim peace deal has drawn cautious reactions from analysts, while Coinbase launched pre-IPO perpetual futures for OpenAI and Anthropic on June 22, 2026. The two developments dominated digital asset conversations this week, reflecting a market balancing macro relief with persistent structural headwinds.
Bitcoin’s bounce lacks conviction
Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau, warned that the move is likely a “dead cat bounce” rather than the start of a new bull trend. He pointed to headwinds beyond the Iran war, including a large overhang from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which holds around 4% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply but trades at a discount to its Bitcoin holdings and is quickly running out of options to support its share price. He also noted unresolved quantum computing threats, sluggish ETF flows, and investor preoccupation with the AI momentum trade. Puckrin stressed that Bitcoin has not recovered key technical levels such as the 200-week exponential moving average, and would need to reclaim $70,000 and $74,000 to inspire confidence.
Jimmy Xue, co-founder of Axis, described the price action as a “relief rally” rather than a genuine risk-on rotation. He highlighted that despite a 4% drop in oil and a 3% jump in Asian equities on the ceasefire, Bitcoin barely moved, holding its $63,000–$65,000 range. Traders remain skeptical after two previous truce attempts collapsed, and attention is on the June 19 signing in Switzerland for a durable outcome. On-chain data showed spot ETFs had just snapped a four-week outflow streak totaling roughly $5.4 billion, with record weekly outflows of $3.4 billion, so institutional bids had not yet returned. The only constructive signal was steady net outflows from exchanges into cold storage, tightening available supply if demand picks up. Xue said a real retest of $70,000 would require positive ETF flows and a soft macro backdrop, with the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision as the swing factor.
Thahbib Rahman of Block Scholes observed that sentiment had improved as the macro environment became slightly more supportive. Expectations for a Fed rate hike plunged; traders now priced a 75% probability of a hike by year-end, down from 100% two weeks earlier. Bitcoin briefly touched $67,000 and Ether reclaimed $1,700. Volatility fell, with seven-day at-the-money implied volatility around 33%, just above the year-to-date low of 28%, reflecting a seasonal summer lull in options demand.
Stablecoins: adoption decoupled from market swings
Bernardo Brites, CEO of Trace Finance, argued that stablecoin usage is resilient regardless of crypto prices because businesses adopt them for speed and cost efficiency in specific corridors. He highlighted Brazil as a key opportunity: the Brazilian real cannot be settled outside the country, and residents cannot hold dollar accounts. A BRL-pegged stablecoin could bridge domestic liquidity to Tether. Brites also noted that while euro stablecoins have utility, the need is far more acute for emerging-market currencies. He stressed that being regulated on both sides of a transaction unlocks the most value.
Coinbase rolls out pre-IPO perpetuals for AI giants
In a separate move, Coinbase International Exchange launched ANTHROPIC-PERP and OPENAI-PERP, USDC-settled perpetual futures that track the private valuations of OpenAI and Anthropic. The contracts are available 24/7 with conservative leverage caps, but they convey no equity, voting rights, or dividends. Instead, the index is each company’s estimated equity valuation divided by one billion. Crucially, if either company goes public, the contract automatically converts into a standard stock perpetual future, rebased to the official share count—a mechanism already proven with the SpaceX pre-IPO contract earlier this month. The product is only for eligible non-US users accessing Coinbase International Exchange under a Bermuda Monetary Authority license. Coinbase warns of elevated risks, including price moves on thin information, leverage-induced liquidations, and the danger that an IPO delay could undermine the pricing basis. The launches align with the company’s “everything exchange” vision, announced at a June 16 product event, and coincide with Anthropic’s confidential IPO filing in early June and reports of OpenAI moving toward a public listing.
