SpaceX (SPCX) shares slipped more than 3% in Monday’s premarket, extending a pullback that has erased much of the post-IPO enthusiasm. After surging from a $135 debut price on June 12, the stock reached $185 by Thursday’s close but has now fallen roughly 9% over two full trading days. Despite this, SPCX remains up 37% from its initial offering.
KeyBanc initiated coverage with the equivalent of a hold rating, calling the valuation stretched at approximately 29 times price-to-sales and 71 times EV/EBITDA on 2027 estimates. The firm acknowledged SpaceX’s dominance in space launch and adjacent verticals but argued the risk/reward appears balanced, emphasizing that the next 12–24 months represent a “prove it phase” for Starship development.
SpaceX’s three business segments paint a mixed picture. The connectivity unit, led by Starlink, generated $11.4 billion of the company’s $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue, delivering a 63% adjusted EBITDA margin. This profit engine contrasts sharply with the AI segment—still loss-making—though it has secured major contracts, including a $1.25 billion monthly deal with Anthropic and a $920 million monthly agreement with Google. KeyBanc projects AI revenue could reach $50.6 billion by 2027, but Grok holds only 3.1% U.S. business adoption versus 41% for Anthropic and 39.5% for OpenAI.
The broader analyst community remains cautiously optimistic: six analysts rate SPCX a Buy, while CFRA is the lone Sell. A near-term catalyst looms with Starship flight 13 scheduled for June 29. Meanwhile, long-term price targets diverge wildly, from a bear case of $64 to a bull case above $1,400 by 2031, yielding a probability-weighted 2031 target around $604.
