Two well-known cryptocurrency analysts have issued cautionary forecasts for Bitcoin (BTC), predicting the leading digital asset could experience a significant correction before establishing a durable bottom. While their downside targets differ, both point to the same macroeconomic headwinds: a strengthening U.S. dollar and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, expects Bitcoin to decline to approximately $55,000 and form a trough between late August and October 2025. He attributes this outlook to the dollar's recent strength, the potential for interest rate hikes under a more hawkish Fed led by new Chair Kevin Warsh, and Bitcoin's traditional seasonal weakness in September. Thielen views this as a tactical correction within a longer‑term cycle rather than a structural bear market.
Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, offers an even more bearish target of around $40,000. He highlights on‑chain metrics like the Realized Price and Balanced Price, which have historically acted as cyclical bottoms. Cowen points to Bitcoin's four‑year cycle pattern, where macro bottoms have typically occurred about a year after the peak. He now expects the ultimate low could arrive around October 2026. He also notes that the current cycle peaked due to apathy rather than euphoria, limiting altcoin rotation and keeping liquidity concentrated in Bitcoin. The persistently strong U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), he argues, will continue to pressure risk assets.
Despite the grim short‑term projections, both analysts advise a disciplined, data‑driven approach. Thielen recommends monitoring the market from late August for potential buying opportunities, while Cowen reminds investors that long‑term strategies have historically prevailed. The convergence of these forecasts underscores the influence of global monetary conditions on crypto markets in 2025 and 2026.
