Bitcoin tumbled to $59,307 on June 25, 2026, triggering a cascade of leveraged liquidations as the crypto market was rattled by escalating distress around Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). More than $1.49 billion in margin positions were wiped out over 24 hours, with Bitcoin longs alone accounting for $1.19 billion, according to CoinGlass. Veteran analyst Bob Loukas urged calm, calling the sell-off a “natural final cleanup” in Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle, but traders are bracing for deeper declines.
The immediate catalyst was the plunge in Strategy’s common stock (MSTR), down 45% in a month, and its preferred equity instrument STRC, which crashed to an all-time low of $73.62 against a $100 par value. With 847,363 BTC on its balance sheet and a heavy debt load, the firm has become a target for short-sellers aiming to force a “death spiral” that could compel the company to sell Bitcoin. CryptoQuant analysts have even recommended Strategy temporarily pause new Bitcoin purchases to shore up cash reserves and cover dividend obligations.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan told Decrypt that “STRC is the tail wagging the Bitcoin dog,” adding that the market “can’t keep its eyes off STRC trading in the $70s.” He warned that pressure will persist until Strategy clarifies its plan. Prediction markets on Myriad now price a 77% chance of Bitcoin falling to $55,000 before any rebound to $80,000, and an 88% chance of Ethereum dropping to $1,500 before a rise to $3,000. Ethereum, currently at $1,576, has lost over 25% in the past month and is down 68% from its all-time high.
Loukas believes Bitcoin has already entered the window for a long-term bottom, but cautions that a final 3–5 months of sideways trading is likely before a new cycle begins in autumn 2026. The bearish sentiment is mirrored on Kalshi, where markets give a 36% probability of Bitcoin falling below $40,000 this year and a 34% chance of Ethereum plunging below $1,000.
