Gold prices slid beneath the psychologically significant $4,000 per ounce mark this week, tumbling to levels not seen since November 2025. The metal has lost nearly 30% from its January record peak of $5,595.46, with spot gold last changing hands at $3,984.83. The sharp decline has drawn renewed technical scrutiny, notably from Societe Generale, which flagged critical support levels that could determine the next leg for the precious metal — and, by extension, for assets often correlated with it, including Bitcoin.
Societe Generale’s technical strategy team identifies the $3,950–$3,980 band as the first major floor, derived from previous consolidation and moving average convergence. A break below that would expose $3,850, aligning with the 50-day moving average, and then possibly $3,700 if macro sentiment sours further. The bank’s analysis is purely chart-based, yet it arrives against a macro backdrop that is heavily influencing the sell-off.
The U.S. dollar is sitting at a 13-month high, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers and diminishing its allure. Crucially, markets are now pricing in a 66% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike by September, according to CME FedWatch data. Higher rates hurt non-yielding gold, and that dynamic is also unsettling the ‘digital gold’ narrative that has buoyed Bitcoin. ANZ analysts noted that the hawkish Fed stance has “derailed the debasement trade,” a trend that had previously benefited both gold and cryptocurrencies as hedges against fiat devaluation.
Easing geopolitical tensions, including progress in U.S.-Iran talks, have further eroded safe-haven premiums. For crypto investors, the question is whether Bitcoin can decouple from the tightening liquidity environment or will follow gold’s downward path. The next catalyst comes Friday with the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which could solidify or disrupt rate hike expectations and consequently sway both gold and digital assets.
