The June 26 end‑of‑quarter options expiry, one of the largest of 2026 with a combined notional value of roughly $11 billion across Bitcoin and Ethereum, is set to fuel volatility but is unlikely to anchor Bitcoin prices at the widely cited max‑pain level of $72,000. As the bear market intensifies, spot prices have tumbled to their lowest since September 2024, rendering the majority of contracts out‑of‑the‑money and challenging the traditional pinning narrative.
Deribit, which holds the bulk of the outstanding options, reported about $9.3 billion in Bitcoin options set to expire alongside $1.6 billion in Ether contracts. The put/call ratio for BTC stands at 0.73, suggesting more calls than puts, while the computed max‑pain point hovers around $72,000–$74,000. However, with spot BTC trading near $58,000–$60,000 in the hours before settlement, roughly 78–80% of open interest is out‑of‑the‑money, limiting the hedging activity that typically creates a pinning effect.
Compounding the deviation from max pain is a significant negative gamma position among dealers. Estimates indicate net short gamma of approximately −143K BTC, with the gamma‑flip zone around $68,000–$70,000. When dealers are net short gamma, they hedge by selling into weakness and buying into strength, amplifying price swings. This dynamic, combined with a wobbly spot market that saw $469 million in net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on June 24, reduces the likelihood of a clean pin at higher strike clusters.
Broader crypto markets have shed over $180 billion in total capitalization this week. Bitcoin briefly plunged below $59,000, while Ethereum touched $1,522—its lowest since early 2025—before a modest bounce. Altcoins are broadly in the red as the sell‑off deepens. “BTC heads into expiry well below its $72K max pain level,” Deribit noted, adding that recent quarterly expiries have shown limited consistent pinning. Greeks Live highlighted persistent demand for near‑term downside protection through puts, with long‑dated options remaining more anchored.
Traders are advised to monitor the gamma‑flip band, order‑book depth, and ETF flow data rather than rely on max‑pain levels as a price target. Post‑expiry, the unwind of hedges could extend directional moves over the following 24–72 hours.
