Bitcoin weathered a turbulent 48 hours, first plunging to $59,100 on June 25 before staging an aggressive V-shaped rebound above $61,000. The flash crash liquidated overleveraged longs, but the rapid recovery signaled that dip-buyers remained active. Prominent analyst Michaël van de Poppe highlighted the bounce as a bullish sign, advising holders not to panic-sell into such moves.
The real test came a day later, as Deribit settled its largest quarterly options expiry of the year. A combined $10.63 billion in BTC and ETH notional contracts matured, with Bitcoin accounting for $9.06 billion. The max pain price—where the largest number of options would expire worthless—sat at $72,000, far above spot. Consequently, approximately 80% of the contracts expired out of the money, underscoring how spot market flow dominated options hedging. Data from BTC Live confirmed that spot price set the direction, not the options book.
Options skews remained deeply negative across short-term tenors, with BTC’s 25-delta skew at -10.7% for one-day and -11.3% for seven-day. This indicated traders were aggressively buying puts to protect against further downside. Now with the expiry cleared and positioning reset, Bitcoin is trading near $60,000, with strong support forming between $58,000 and $60,000. Resistance is clustered around $63,000 to $65,000, and a drop below $58,000 could open the way to $54,000. For now, the most likely scenario is consolidation in the $58,000–$63,000 range as the market awaits fresh catalysts.
