Bitcoin (BTC) continues to grapple with intense selling pressure, hovering around the $60,000 support while facing a barrage of macro headwinds. Large capital outflows from US spot ETFs, fears of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate hike, a surging US dollar, climbing Treasury yields, and geopolitical unrest in the Middle East have all weighed on the market. As these factors converge, several prominent analysts and on-chain data are pointing toward a potential final capitulation for Bitcoin, with price targets clustering in the $50,000 to $55,000 zone.
QCP Capital analysts reported a surge in demand for Bitcoin put options with strikes between $55,000 and $58,000 for the end of July. The firm also noted that risk reversal metrics heavily favored puts, signaling a bearish tilt. Key support levels were identified at $58,000 for Bitcoin and $1,500 for Ethereum, though the primary focus remains on BTC’s ability to hold these thresholds.
LD Capital founder Jack Yi, who recently admitted to being overly optimistic about Ethereum during the early February decline, provided a detailed Elliott Wave analysis. Yi stated, “We are currently experiencing the third wave of decline since 11:10, and according to ripple theory and cycle rules, this is the last major downward wave for Bitcoin.” He emphasized that black swan events or sudden spikes—typical at bear market ends—have not yet materialized, warranting close observation. Yi projects that a 60% pullback from Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000 would lead to $51,000, while a 66% drop targets $43,000. He believes July and August will constitute the final downturn, offering what he called “the most valuable trading opportunity for the next three years.”
On-chain data from CryptoQuant adds a cautious glimmer. Analyst MorenoDV observed the first bottoming signal in Bitcoin’s UTXO block profit/loss ratio, which has dipped to levels historically associated with market floors. However, the analyst warned, “This doesn’t mean the bottom has been reached. Bitcoin may need to endure more pain before completely ending its bear market phase,” citing the need for a much steeper decline in the 365-day moving average to confirm a durable floor.
The confluence of technical, derivatives, and on-chain indicators paints a picture of a market entering its final descent phase. While the predicted bottom range varies, the overarching sentiment suggests that investors should brace for continued volatility before a sustainable recovery can take hold.
