JPMorgan has revised its short-term outlook for gold, now expecting the precious metal to trade sideways in the coming weeks before possibly climbing to $4,500 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026. The bank projects an average price of $4,300/oz in Q3, rising to $4,500 in Q4, according to a Reuters report. This adjustment stems from weakening demand across key buying sectors, making gold more sensitive to real interest rate shifts and less attractive relative to other assets in the near term. The bank describes the current price situation as “range-bound,” signaling that traders should brace for limited price action before a potential recovery in the second half of the year.
Despite the cautious short-term view, JPMorgan remains firmly bullish on gold’s medium-to-long-term trajectory. The report identifies three structural forces that will continue to drive gold higher into 2027: central banks globally are still accumulating gold reserves at a heightened pace, physical demand is expected to strengthen in the coming months, and institutional investors keep allocating portions of their portfolios to gold for hedging. These factors, the bank argues, will sustain gold’s role as both a safe-haven asset and a reserve currency alternative, even if short-term price movements disappoint retail traders.
The analysis also touches on the ongoing competition between gold and Bitcoin as macro hedges throughout 2025 and into 2026. With JPMorgan anticipating a range-bound gold price in the near term, some analysts believe institutional capital may temporarily rotate into the crypto market, particularly into Bitcoin, as investors seek alternative stores of value. However, the bank’s long-term confidence in gold underscores that it will remain a significant asset class, preventing a wholesale shift away from the metal.
