Renowned analyst Benjamin Cowen has released a detailed market analysis asserting that Bitcoin's iconic four-year cycle continues to operate with near-perfect precision, despite widespread skepticism. According to Cowen, the 2026 price trajectory is a less volatile mirror image of the 2018 bear market.
His charts reveal a striking correlation: the local low in February, successive higher lows in March and April, a rejection at the 200-day moving average in May, and a breakdown below the prior low in June all occurred on identical timelines. The proportional price scaling is especially notable—the late June 2018 low near $5,700 corresponds to a late June/early July 2026 low of $57,000, an exact tenfold multiple.
Cowen attributes widespread investor pessimism to peak psychology. In 2018, enthusiasm soared when Bitcoin touched $20,000, but the expected altcoin rally after the peak around $126,000 in the current cycle failed to materialize. “Markets peaked with complacency, not enthusiasm,” he stated, explaining why the current downturn feels heavier.
Looking ahead, the analyst forecasts a typical short-term bounce in July, followed by renewed weakness in August and September. Crucially, he projects the final bottom of this cycle will arrive in October, rather than December as in 2018, because the cycle's peak occurred last October.
