Bitcoin miners are refusing to move coins to exchanges, with the Miners’ Position Index (MPI) stuck at –0.94—deeply negative and far below the zero line that marks average exchange flows. This reading, highlighted by CryptoQuant, shows miners are selling far less BTC than their one‑year average, a pattern that has persisted since the second quarter of 2026. Yet the calm in miner behavior is being undercut by a separate stress gauge that is ringing alarm bells.
The Miner Cycle Stress Composite, which blends the Puell Multiple and the Miner Capitulation Index, has collapsed to a level last seen in 2015—just before Bitcoin plunged 50% from around $300 to $160 in under a week. CryptoQuant contributor @gaah_im noted that the composite hit exactly 0.00 that year, marking the only time both metrics fell together into deeply undervalued territory. That same setup is now visible again, raising the possibility of a similarly violent flush.
Meanwhile, the price that active on‑chain holders paid tells its own story. The True Market Mean (TMM), which strips out lost coins, sits at roughly $76,700. As analyst Joao Wedson described, that level has been capping every rally, forcing investors who are near breakeven to exit without a fight. The AVIV ratio, which tracks the average profit‑and‑loss of this active cohort, hovers at 0.8—translating to a collective loss of about 20%. Past cycles saw the ratio sink as low as 0.5–0.6, though Wedson cautions that deeper drawdowns may not be needed this time, given the institutional muscle now supporting Bitcoin.
Adding a contrarian note, the Sell‑Side Risk Ratio has fallen into a zone that historically preceded strong expansions in 2019, 2020, and 2023—a signal that intense selling pressure may be exhausted. Still, the convergence of a stubborn MPI, a resistance‑holding TMM, and a miner stress pattern that once preceded a crash leaves the market braced for heightened volatility.
