Recent analysis from major market participants paints a cautious picture for Bitcoin’s ongoing recovery. Wintermute, a leading crypto market maker, described the recent rise as a relief rally triggered by macroeconomic shifts rather than the start of a structural bull market. The firm pointed to signs of a slowing U.S. economy, expectations of looser Federal Reserve policy, and easing Middle East tensions as catalysts that boosted risk assets like Bitcoin.
Wintermute noted that internal factors also provided support: whales accumulated over 270,000 BTC near the 200-week moving average, and options market demand swung from downside hedging toward calls at $60,000–$70,000. However, the firm cautioned that ETF flows have not yet turned net positive and that a single day of inflows does not confirm a trend reversal. The analysis advised a cautious approach until sustainable ETF demand materializes.
Adding to the skeptical tone, CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain highlighted a dangerous divergence in Bitcoin’s price rally. While BTC climbed from $58,500 to above $63,500 in two weeks, Binance funding rates surged 860% above their 90-day baseline, indicating aggressive leveraged long positioning in offshore derivatives markets. In contrast, the Coinbase Premium Index remained negative throughout the entire period, fluctuating between -0.09 and -0.17, signaling a lack of genuine spot demand from U.S. institutions and large buyers.
The NVT Golden Cross, which compares network value to on-chain transaction volume, dropped 579% from its baseline. This decline suggests that transaction activity is not keeping pace with market cap growth, reinforcing the view that speculative leverage—not organic accumulation—is driving prices higher.
Both Wintermute and CryptoOnchain stressed that the sustainability of Bitcoin’s recovery hinges on a return of real U.S. spot demand. Until the Coinbase premium turns neutral or positive, the market remains vulnerable to a leverage flush and a sharp correction.
