Bitcoin has entered a pivotal technical phase, drawing warnings from two prominent analysts who see echoes of past cycles. Doctor Profit cautioned that the current retest of the weekly MA200 strongly resembles the 2022 setup that preceded a sharp decline. He noted that after losing the moving average and reclaiming it for three weeks, Bitcoin then plunged to the $15,000–$16,000 range. The analyst fears a similar false breakout could lure bullish traders before a deeper drop, maintaining short positions from an average entry of $80,500 and targeting a move to the $40,000–$50,000 region—the area where the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF launched.
Meanwhile, analyst EGRAG CRYPTO highlighted Bitcoin’s 2-week EMA as the market’s most critical level, labeling the current period “Cycle E” and the “Decision Zone.” He outlined three possible outcomes: a macro bottom already forming near support, extended sideways consolidation, or one final leg lower before a sustained recovery. Historical patterns from Cycles B, C, and D show similar double-bottom formations that took months to complete. Doctor Profit also pointed to upcoming Fed events—FOMC minutes on July 8, initial jobless claims on July 9, and consumer credit data—that could add further macro pressure.
