Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss ratio has dropped to -0.35, the lowest since the FTX collapse in December 2022, signaling deep capitulation historically seen before major recoveries in 2015, 2019, and 2022. Polymarket places a 71% probability on BTC touching $65,000 this month, but only 24% odds for $70,000. Long liquidations totalled $47.91 million over 24 hours versus $13.66 million in shorts, reflecting persistent bearish pressure.
BTC trades at $62,812.89 on July 6, down 1.21%, after breaking below the ascending channel for the third time in 2026. The daily chart shows a consolidation pattern with each prior breakdown—in February and late May—followed by a recovery. This structural weakness adds caution, yet on-chain distress echoes patterns that preceded significant rallies.
On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin has bounced from the lower Bollinger Band near $57,247, a level that has acted as the main downside boundary. Analyst Sky notes that holding this bounce keeps the door open to the middle band at approx. $70,000. A close above the middle band would be the first strong signal of buyer control, with the upper band near $82,538 as the next target.
Looking at shorter timeframes, analyst Kaz sees a possible sweep of $65,600 resistance, a liquidity grab zone, before sellers potentially step in. He emphasizes $62,700 as a key support, aligning with the monthly point of control and a fair value gap. A rejection from $65,600 could send price back toward $60,500. Thus, holding $62,700 is critical for the bullish scenario to persist.
