Zcash (ZEC) surged above $450 on Tuesday, as the privacy-focused cryptocurrency reached a significant supply milestone—80% of its 21 million maximum coins are now mined. Traders are watching the $500 breakout level, while the market braces for the upcoming Ironwood upgrade that will restore confidence in the coin’s fixed supply.
According to CoinMarketCap, 16.76 million ZEC have been mined against the hard cap of 21 million. The final 20% of the supply will be emitted far more slowly due to Zcash’s halving schedule, which mirrors Bitcoin’s. The most recent halving in November 2024 cut block rewards from 3.125 ZEC to 1.5625 ZEC, driving annual inflation to an estimated 2–4%. The next halving is projected for late 2028, when rewards will drop again to 0.78125 ZEC per block.
However, the milestone comes with an asterisk. In early June, developers disclosed a four-year-old bug in the Orchard shielded pool that could theoretically have allowed infinite counterfeit ZEC to be created without detection. The flaw was patched, and no exploitation was confirmed, but the uncertainty prompted high-profile investor Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, to liquidate his entire ZEC position, which had been his largest altcoin holding after Bitcoin.
The upcoming Ironwood upgrade, targeted for July, is the direct fix. It will retire the affected Orchard pool and move funds to a new, corrected shielded pool, stranding any potential counterfeit coins and restoring a verifiable, bounded supply. A smooth rollout is considered critical to regaining institutional trust.
Technically, ZEC is trapped between key levels. Support sits at $439, where the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) aligns precisely with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement from the $689 high to the $183 low. The 200-day SMA at $379 adds a deeper safety net. Resistance lies in the $487–$496 band, marked by the 50-day SMA and the 0.382 Fibonacci level. A daily close above that band would open a path to $570, while a breakdown below $439 could send ZEC toward $377.
Derivatives data from CoinGlass show open interest up nearly 3% to $788 million, with bullish funding rates, though long liquidations of $967,000 and shorts of $1.6 million suggest indecision. The broader market consolidates, and ZEC’s next move likely hinges on Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $64,000 and the Ironwood upgrade’s reception.
