Bitcoin accumulation remains active as key on-chain metrics flash mixed signals, suggesting that while buyers are stepping in, a definitive bear market bottom has not yet formed. Data from Glassnode shows a notable increase in long-term holder realized losses, a pattern historically associated with market stress that often precedes an extended accumulation range before a lasting recovery emerges.
According to a Glassnode update shared by Whale Factor, realized losses have climbed to significant levels, though still below the highest readings of previous cycles. The analysis, using a 30-day moving average for trend clarity, indicates that Bitcoin is in an early accumulation phase rather than a completed bottom. Historical examples from 2018 and 2022 demonstrate that after such realized loss spikes, prices often move sideways as stronger hands absorb supply before upward momentum returns.
At the same time, on-chain analyst Darkfost highlighted that Bitcoin's unrealized profit ratio has fallen to 65.8%, well below its historical average of approximately 81%. This means that over a third of circulating Bitcoin is currently underwater. In prior bear markets, including 2015, 2018-2019, and 2022, the loss ratio eventually exceeded the profit ratio before a true bottom formed—a capitulation signal that has not yet materialized in the current cycle.
Darkfost questioned whether this cycle could deviate from precedent, noting that institutional adoption, spot Bitcoin ETF flows, and an evolving regulatory landscape might alter traditional on-chain signals. However, the lack of a loss-dominant phase raises the possibility of further downside or prolonged consolidation before any sustained rally.
Bitcoin’s price action offered a silver lining, reclaiming the $63,000 level after successfully defending the $61,700 support zone multiple times. The recovery came with a cleaner bullish structure, and market capitalization held near $1.26 trillion, though trading volume declined about 9.4%.
Overall, while accumulation signals are building, the on-chain data cautions that the market may not have fully flushed out weak hands, a prerequisite historically for durable recoveries. Investors are closely watching whether conditions shift into a broader uptrend or if further pain is ahead.
