Standard Chartered has reaffirmed its end-2026 Bitcoin price target of $100,000, calling the recent weakness a result of uncertainty over Strategy Inc.’s evolving treasury approach rather than any fundamental deterioration. The endorsement came as shares of Strategy (MSTR) gained on Friday, and the company’s latest moves—including its largest Bitcoin sale to date—continue to divide analyst opinion.
In a note, Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, argued that Strategy’s recent actions have created short-term uncertainty but do not alter Bitcoin’s medium-term outlook. The comments follow Strategy’s sale of 3,588 BTC for approximately $216 million last week, its biggest disposal ever, and the adoption of a Digital Credit Capital Framework that includes a Bitcoin monetization program, a USD reserve, share buybacks, and preferred stock support.
“Strategy’s actions are muddying bitcoin’s near-term prospects,” Kendrick wrote. “The company appears to be moving away from its ‘never sell bitcoin’ mantra toward a more complex approach, and clear communication of that pivot will determine how quickly the pressure on bitcoin lifts.” Strategy currently holds 843,775 BTC, more than 4% of the total supply that will ever exist.
According to Standard Chartered, the company’s business model has evolved as its market net asset value multiple declined toward 1.0, limiting its ability to issue shares and buy additional bitcoin. Instead, Strategy is increasingly positioning Bitcoin as collateral supporting its perpetual preferred stock STRC, which pays a 12% annual dividend. However, STRC fell sharply below its $100 par value in late June, raising investor concern. The security now trades around $90, but Kendrick noted it remains heavily overcollateralized and should eventually trade back toward par. He likened the framework to a central bank promising to do “whatever it takes.”
Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts warned that formalizing Bitcoin sales introduces “avoidable two-way risk” by making Strategy both a buyer and seller. Grayscale’s Zach Pandl countered that the sales strengthen the balance sheet and help Bitcoin establish a more durable price floor. Citi maintained a Buy rating with a $260 price target, while Mizuho lowered its target to $213 but kept an Outperform rating.
Separately, concerns over a potential liquidity squeeze have been outlined in a detailed analysis by VanEck. Strategy holds 843,738 BTC as of May 2026 and carries $6.7 billion in convertible notes and $15.5 billion in preferred stock. VanEck estimates annual preferred dividend payments will jump from $217 million in 2025 to $904 million in 2026, far exceeding the software unit’s $475 million revenue. While the company retired its only Bitcoin-collateralized loan in 2023, the real risk is a liquidity crisis if Bitcoin’s price falls, making it harder to refinance maturing notes or issue new equity. The Polymarket prediction market currently assigns an 8.5% probability to a Strategy margin call in 2026, reflecting a low but non-negligible tail risk.
Kendrick concluded that the recent volatility is “noise rather than a signal about bitcoin’s medium-term direction,” adding that at current levels Bitcoin is “a screaming buy.”
