IBM finds itself at the intersection of quantum computing buzz and Wall Street scrutiny, as a celebrity visit and a fresh analyst note shine a spotlight on the tech giant’s future prospects. The stock, which rallied 25% in Q2, is now under a more cautious lens ahead of its July 22 earnings report.
NBA forward Kyle Kuzma’s visit to IBM’s Thomas J. Watson Research Center last week generated social media attention for quantum computing, a technology poised to transform industries. Kuzma, who has 1.3 million followers on X, toured the facility voluntarily after expressing interest online — IBM confirmed it was not a paid sponsorship. He later posted on LinkedIn that “quantum could end up being the foundation that expands what AI is even capable of.”
The visit coincided with Susquehanna analyst James Friedman initiating coverage on IBM Friday with a Neutral rating and a $303 price target, implying modest upside from the stock’s current ~$295 level. In a rare move, Friedman assigned a specific $65 per‑share valuation to IBM’s quantum‑computing division, citing a potential $650 billion market by 2040. “It’s a great way to participate,” he wrote.
However, the note also highlighted several headwinds. IBM’s consulting business faces pressure from hyperscalers bundling AI tools, which could limit growth for watsonx. A particularly pointed risk emerged from Anthropic’s tool for modernizing COBOL legacy systems — a direct threat to IBM’s high‑margin mainframe migration work. Additionally, Starbucks is reportedly building its own AI tools to replace IBM and Microsoft software, fueling concerns about enterprise customer churn.
IBM’s fundamentals remain solid: the company beat Q1 estimates with EPS of $1.91 on revenue of $15.92 billion and raised its dividend to $1.69 per share. Analysts are split — 16 have a Buy rating, 9 a Hold, with an average price target of $306.47. Bank of America lifted its target to $330, while KeyCorp downgraded to “sector weight.” Institutional ownership stands at nearly 59%, though Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group recently trimmed its position.
As quantum computing moves from lab to public imagination, IBM’s Q2 report on July 22 will be a critical test of whether the hype translates into sustained momentum.
