XRP is facing increasing bearish pressure as multiple on-chain and derivatives metrics signal weakening trader participation, according to separate analyses by CryptoQuant. The data shows futures open interest on Binance has slumped to a three-month low, while the overall open interest across exchanges has tumbled to $350.6 million — one of the lowest readings in recent months. This decline in leveraged positions suggests traders are closing contracts and reducing risk exposure, with fresh capital failing to replace exiting participants.
Binance Futures Open Interest Plummets
CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain reported that Binance’s XRP futures open interest dropped to approximately 397.3 million XRP, the lowest since late March. In May, open interest had consistently exceeded 480 million XRP and briefly climbed past 510 million when XRP traded between $1.45 and $1.50. However, the metric fell sharply in mid-June, sliding from above 500 million XRP to nearly 415 million XRP in a short period. Since then, every recovery attempt has failed to breach previous highs, and the latest reading confirms derivatives activity at its weakest in over three months. The decline mirrors a broader market cautiousness as XRP’s price sits near $1.09.
NVT Ratio and Capital Outflows Add to Worry
A second CryptoQuant analysis underscored that the drop in open interest is not an isolated futures event. The firm noted that capital is also leaving the broader market, with traders exiting positions without being replaced by new money. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio remains elevated at 162.86, indicating that network activity has not kept pace with the asset’s valuation. Such a high NVT often suggests that the market is overpriced relative to actual usage, leaving it vulnerable to further corrections. Additionally, US-based spot XRP ETFs recorded $7.3 million in outflows on July 8, though they have held up better than comparable Bitcoin and Ethereum funds.
Signs of Real-World Adoption Persist
Despite the gloomy technical signals, XRP continues to notch adoption wins. Earlier this week, Japan’s SBI VC Trade revealed that companies are increasingly adding XRP alongside Bitcoin to their treasury reserves and shareholder benefit programs. XRP also remains one of the most actively traded cryptocurrencies in South Korea. On the branding front, Ripple secured the first crypto sponsorship of a major US college athletics program, with the University of Kansas Jayhawks set to display the XRP logo on game jerseys starting this fall.
CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain cautioned that falling open interest is not automatically a bearish signal; it could represent a repositioning phase. However, he stressed that a recovery in both price and open interest would be needed to confirm a return of liquidity. Until then, the combination of declining leverage and a high NVT ratio points to a market still dominated by sellers.
