The dramatic collapse in silver prices from over $100 an ounce earlier this year to around $59 may accelerate further, warns Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone. In a stark analysis, McGlone suggests the metal could slide toward its 10-year moving average near $31—a potential 47% drop from current levels—as the "devil's metal" reverts to its long-term mean.
McGlone highlights two historical precedent that give bulls pause: the 1980 and 2011 peaks near $50, which now appear as only the first major support zone, not the floor. Even more alarming, at the end of 2025 silver's premium to its own 10-year moving average was the largest since 1979, a setup that historically resolves with sharp mean reversion. With the 10-year moving average currently at $31, a retreat to that level cannot be ruled out if macro conditions worsen.
The strategist pushes back on the narrative that inflation and a soaring U.S. budget deficit will underpin precious metals. While CPI is elevated at 4.2%, it is nowhere near the 1980 peak of 14.8%, and the U.S. debt-to-stock-market-cap ratio remains low at around 0.50. This suggests equities, not hard assets like silver, are still the dominant magnet for capital. The same deficit argument has been used to support Bitcoin, and a sustained drop in silver could erode confidence in the broader "store of value" trade, potentially weighing on crypto sentiment.
The warning comes as silver edges higher near $58 on Wednesday, with markets awaiting U.S. CPI data that could shape the Federal Reserve's next move. Traders are closely watching key levels: a break above $58.50 opens the door to $59.20 resistance, while support lies at $57.40 and $57.00. However, McGlone's longer-term view suggests that these levels may be irrelevant once the reversion process fully unfolds.
