A growing disconnect between XRP's derivatives market and spot trading is drawing analyst attention, with leverage plunging to multi-year lows while whale-retail activity spreads narrow. On July 16, the Binance whale-retail spread dropped to 35.1%, just above the early-May level of 35.6%, according to CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha. Across all centralized exchanges, the spread remained wider at 38.4%, signaling a sharper divergence on other platforms. Simultaneously, open interest surged as spot flows declined, heightening liquidation risks.
Separately, crypto analyst Darkfost noted that Binance's estimated leverage ratio (ELR) for XRP has fallen to 0.16, one of the lowest readings since November 2024 and near the April 2026 low of 0.15. The ratio compares leveraged futures positions to XRP held on the exchange. The decline followed a roughly 70% price correction that flushed out many highly leveraged positions, reducing open interest and clearing the market. Darkfost compared the current setup to 2024, when XRP's ELR dropped to around 0.05 during a prolonged sideways range near $0.40, after which the token rallied over 790%. The analyst did not predict a repeat, but highlighted that such deleveraging cycles have historically preceded major moves.
Despite the deleveraging, XRP remains in a broader downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. A corrective bounce toward the $1.19–$1.42 resistance area is possible if broader crypto conditions support it, but failure to reclaim that zone could expose the $0.74 support. The whale-retail gap narrowing and leverage reset suggest a market resetting after a long correction, though further downside is not ruled out.
