CryptoQuant has called on Strategy, the corporate bitcoin holder formerly known as MicroStrategy, to establish clear, systematic rules for when to buy and sell bitcoin. The firm’s head of research, Julio Moreno, acknowledged that the recently unveiled Digital Credit Capital Framework was “a genuine course correction” that addressed immediate liquidity concerns, but emphasized two missing pieces: a valuation-aware model for timing bitcoin purchases and a through-cycle plan for strategic sales near market highs.
The framework, announced on June 29, introduced a dedicated U.S. dollar reserve for preferred dividends and interest with a 12‑month minimum coverage target, raised the dividend on STRC preferred shares to 12% (subject to monthly review), and authorized up to $1 billion in preferred‑share repurchases alongside a $1 billion MSTR common‑stock buyback program. It also created a bitcoin monetization program allowing up to $1.25 billion in bitcoin sales to replenish the dollar reserve or fund dividends and buybacks.
Soon after the announcement, Strategy sold about 3,588 bitcoin for roughly $216 million from June 29 to July 5, and subsequently raised $466.7 million through MSTR share sales from July 6–12 without further bitcoin transactions. These moves boosted the company’s dollar reserve from $1.44 billion to $3 billion and extended dividend coverage from 14 to 29 months. Bitcoin holdings remained unchanged at 843,775 BTC, and the STRIC preferred stock rebounded from its late‑June low of around $75 to about $88, though it remains below its $100 par value.
However, CryptoQuant notes that Strategy has yet to define when to resume bitcoin accumulation—currently paused to preserve liquidity—and lacks a framework for strategic, partial sales or hedging near cycle peaks. “Its ‘equity issuance discipline near 1x mNAV’ governs how Strategy raises capital, not when it should deploy it into bitcoin,” Moreno said, warning that absent a valuation-aware model the company risks repeating the pattern of “always buying the local top.” On selling, Moreno stressed that the current monetization program is defensive and does not provide for profit‑taking or balance‑sheet de‑leveraging at market highs to build dry powder for re‑accumulation.
The broader market has shown sensitivity to these developments. Following the bitcoin sales, Strategy’s share price (MSTR) fell 3.53% to $94.03 in the latest session and slipped another 2.46% in pre‑market trading, on below‑average volume. The ongoing selling continues to weigh on sentiment, extending losses for the stock and its perpetual preferred share, STRC.
