Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode has released a new market update, combining key on-chain price models with a warning about rising volatility risks. Bitcoin is currently trading around $64,500–$64,900, while Glassnode's analysis points to significant divergences from key valuation metrics.
The Active Investors Mean price model, which reflects the average cost basis of active market participants, stands at $83,500. This is notably higher than the spot price, suggesting that many investors consider the asset undervalued. The True Market Mean, a broader measure of fair value, sits at $76,200, while the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis is at $69,500. These levels highlight a gap between current trading prices and perceived value among different investor cohorts.
In a separate update, Glassnode noted that Bitcoin's consolidation near $64,500 is supported by improving investor profitability and relatively stable derivatives markets. Bitcoin ETF inflows and recovering on-chain activity have aided the recovery from recent lows below $58,000. However, the firm cautioned that rising short-term trading activity is adding fuel for potential sharp price swings. Long-term holders continue to dominate Bitcoin supply, but the growing presence of hot capital—speculative, short-term money—could amplify future volatility. Fresh capital inflows remain limited, leaving the market susceptible to sudden moves.
Together, these insights paint a picture of cautious optimism against a backdrop of fragile market structure, with traders now eyeing the STH Cost Basis of $69,500 as a resistance level to watch.
