All eyes are on Tesla as it prepares to report second-quarter 2026 earnings on Wednesday. Wall Street expects earnings per share of $0.54, a solid increase from $0.40 a year ago, on revenue of $27.4 billion. The company delivered approximately 480,000 vehicles in Q2, a 25% jump year over year, fueled by higher oil prices, buyer incentives, and a pullback from traditional automakers after the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit.
However, the main drivers of the stock are not just the delivery numbers. Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software has quietly scaled to 1.3 million subscribers as of Q1 2026, up from 850,000 a year ago, generating recurring revenue at $99 per month. Elon Musk recently announced that FSD will soon learn individual driving preferences—lane choices, parking spots—making it more personalized. Analysts expect updates on this front.
Investors are also closely watching for progress on the robotaxi service, launched in Austin, Texas in June 2025, and the Optimus humanoid robot program. Morgan Stanley's Andrew Percoco noted that while strong auto and energy deliveries improve near-term fundamentals, Robotaxi and Optimus remain the primary stock drivers. Bank of America maintains a Buy rating with a $460 price target, citing robotaxi expansion and upcoming Optimus milestones.
Not everyone is bullish. Insiders sold $12.4 million worth of TSLA stock over the past 90 days, and Meeder Asset Management cut its stake by 56%. The average analyst price target stands at $408.07, with 21 Buy, 21 Hold, and 4 Sell ratings. Tesla’s stock is down 18% year-to-date, and GuruFocus estimates a fair value of $291.42, implying the stock is about 27% overvalued at current levels. The earnings call will be crucial for assessing whether the future growth narratives justify the still-lofty valuation.
