Ethereum’s valuation has fallen to historically attractive levels, but on-chain data from CryptoQuant suggests it is too early to call a definitive bottom. In a recent report, the analytics platform highlighted that ETH is trading approximately 17% below its realized price of around $2,304, a zone that in past cycles often preceded asymmetric rallies.
Key metrics paint an incomplete recovery. The ETH/BTC MVRV ratio has cooled from a peak of 0.95 in August 2025 to about 0.65, yet remains above the ~0.45 threshold that marked previous ETH lows. Selling pressure is easing – the ETH/BTC inflow rate dropped from above 1.5 to roughly 0.8 – but has not yet reached the extreme low of ~0.4 seen at prior capitulation points. Meanwhile, institutional demand is beginning to reverse: the ETH/BTC ETF asset ratio fell to ~0.115 in June 2026 before ticking back up to 0.13, signaling renewed interest, though still shy of levels needed to support a sustained rally.
Only two of five historical bottom indicators are flashing. While relative strength versus Bitcoin is improving and spot trading volumes have returned to turning-point ranges, a classic capitulation event – which would confirm a market bottom – has not occurred. CryptoQuant emphasized that the missing capitulation and the remaining three indicators argue against calling a bottom now.
Network fundamentals continue to strengthen. Exchange balances are declining as more ETH moves into self-custody and staking, with roughly 34% of the circulating supply now locked. Corporate treasury strategies, such as those of BitMine Immersion Technologies, are accumulating ETH despite unrealized losses. However, macroeconomic factors – Fed policy, dollar liquidity, and ETF flows – will also play a critical role in determining when Ethereum truly bottoms out.
