Palantir Technologies (PLTR) shares faced downward pressure this week as the UK’s Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) intensified scrutiny of the company’s NHS Federated Data Platform (FDP) contract, while investors also weighed a brighter long-term growth outlook from Citi ahead of earnings.
The OSR addressed public concerns about how NHS England communicated performance metrics for the FDP. Following Freedom of Information requests, NHS England added a disclaimer to its methods page stating it could not draw conclusions about cause and effect due to uncontrolled variables. The regulator also noted that Imperial College would conduct an independent academic evaluation of the platform. The move adds to existing criticism; Jo Maugham of the Good Law Project said Palantir was not a company “that can be trusted with this nationally important contract,” and regional NHS bodies like Greater Manchester have opted for alternative solutions built with UK universities.
Adding to the pressure, a new open-source “World Monitor” tool on GitHub aims to replicate some of Palantir’s core intelligence capabilities, raising competitive concerns ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings report on August 3. Analysts expect earnings per share of 33 cents on revenue of $1.81 billion.
Despite the near-term headwinds, Citi analyst Tyler Radke raised his revenue growth estimates for Palantir to 53% for fiscal 2027, well above Wall Street’s 45% consensus. Radke reiterated a Buy rating but trimmed his price target to $200 from $225, citing multiple compression. He expects the US Commercial segment to rebound after a first-quarter slowdown, driven by AIP expansion into new industries and geographies, with net new Remaining Deal Value returning to the $800 million-plus range seen in late 2025. Intra-quarter checks with partners were described as “largely positive,” and the company’s free cash flow margin averaged 54.1% over the past year—among the best in software.
Technically, PLTR remains below key moving averages, down about 5.7% from its 50-day simple moving average and 19.5% below its 200-day moving average. The stock has fallen roughly 20% this year, keeping both intermediate and long-term trends negative ahead of the earnings release.
