CryptoQuant says bitcoin’s recent rally has paused below a heavy supply zone, and a decisive close above the 365-day moving average near $81,700 is needed to confirm a new bull market.
The on-chain analytics firm noted that bitcoin’s 24% gain over two weeks has stalled, with price ranging roughly between $76,000 and $82,000 and currently near $77,000. Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, said the trend remains constructive but a wall of resistance stands in the way.
The nearest resistance is between $77,100 and $80,200, where long-term holders sold about 539,000 BTC over a 30-day period this year. Above that, bitcoin faces the 365-day moving average at $81,700, which Moreno says has historically marked the official start of bull markets. The next upside levels include $83,600, based on the 3x Metcalfe band, and $88,700, the upper band of the trader realized price model where profit-taking has historically emerged.
On the downside, CryptoQuant sees support near $70,000 at the 200-day moving average and between $62,000 and $65,000, where long-term holders accumulated about 476,000 BTC this year. Moreno concluded that bitcoin needs to digest overhead supply and break valuation ceilings before a new leg up can develop.
