Economist Peter Schiff has warned that Brent crude’s surge above $100 could reverse June’s 0.4% monthly CPI decline and produce a sharp US inflation rebound in July. In a post on X, Schiff noted that crude had already climbed about 30% in July and returned above $90 per barrel when he issued the warning. “If the price hits $100 by month-end, that will be a 43% rise. July CPI could be a doozy!” Schiff added. The warning gained urgency as Brent crossed $100 hours later following Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea.
The attacks prompted President Donald Trump to threaten Iran and the Houthis with “major military punishment,” escalating the already tense situation in the region. The threat has become more serious because Saudi exporters have relied more heavily on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted. Goldman Sachs analysts warned that Brent could exceed $120 if disruptions persist.
Bitcoin fell below $65,000 as surging oil prices and higher Treasury yields triggered a broader retreat from risk assets. Data from CryptoSlate showed the largest cryptocurrency trading near $64,980 as Brent crude remained on track for a weekly gain of almost 10%. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to roughly 4.7%, its highest since January 2025, while the S&P 500 fell 1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.2% on July 23.
Higher energy costs are feeding into interest rate expectations. CME FedWatch showed that traders now assign a 37.9% chance to a quarter-point rate hike at the Fed’s July 28–29 meeting, up from just 10% after the June CPI report. André Dragosch of Bitwise noted that a sustained rise in oil could push the 10-year yield above 5%. Meanwhile, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $225.2 million in net outflows on July 23, snapping a seven-session inflow streak, and on-chain data pointed to weakening spot demand.
