Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management has raised the probability of a Tesla and SpaceX merger to 90% following Tesla’s Q2 2026 earnings call, up from his previous 80% estimate. The call, held on July 22, saw Elon Musk acknowledge increasing collaboration between the two companies but declined to discuss a merger, stating, “It’s got to be done with the appropriate process.”
Munster expressed surprise that the question was even raised, interpreting it as a positive signal. He pointed to Musk’s comments about expanding overlap, particularly around Terafab, a chipmaking initiative backed by both firms. Existing commercial ties already include Tesla supplying battery storage for SpaceX’s AI data centers and integrating SpaceX’s Grok AI assistant into Tesla vehicles.
Prediction market Kalshi currently gives a 41% chance of a merger occurring before March 2027, with over $402,000 wagered on the contract. The speculation comes amid market turbulence: Tesla shares fell nearly 4% after it missed Q2 profit estimates and posted negative free cash flow. SpaceX stock (NASDAQ: SPCX) also dropped over 6%, breaking below $115 to a new post-IPO low just weeks after its record listing at $135 per share.
Technical pressures on SpaceX stock include an upcoming lock-up expiration on August 6, when roughly 900 million insider shares become eligible for sale, and a Starship V3 launch scrub due to engine ignition failure. With earnings due on August 4, the stock faces a volatile period. Musk has a history of merging his ventures, having folded xAI into SpaceX before its June IPO and acquiring SolarCity in 2016.
