SanDisk (SNDK) is entering a pivotal week as it prepares to report fiscal Q4 2026 earnings on August 5, with options markets pricing in a massive 25% move in either direction—far above its average 8.75% post-earnings swing. The stock has already rocketed 578% year-to-date, driven by soaring NAND flash prices and surging demand for high‑speed storage in AI data centers. Despite a recent 33% pullback from its YTD high to around $1,610–$1,636, Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish.
Analysts have aggressively raised price targets. Wells Fargo’s Aaron Rakers lifted his target to $1,620, while EverCore ISI sees shares reaching $3,100. Wedbush’s Matt Bryson hiked to $2,000 and Bank of America’s Wamsi Mohan to $2,500. Bernstein, Citigroup, and Cantor Fitzgerald also raised estimates. The consensus rating is Strong Buy with an average target of $2,052.50, implying 27% upside. The optimism is rooted in explosive earnings growth: Q4 revenue is expected to hit $8.42 billion (up 343% YoY) and EPS of $34.67 versus just $0.29 a year earlier. For full fiscal 2026, EPS is forecast at $64.52.
Last quarter, revenue jumped 251% to $5.95 billion with a gross margin of 78.4%. Enterprise SSD revenue climbed roughly sevenfold YoY and 233% sequentially to $1.467 billion. The AI infrastructure build‑out shows no signs of slowing—Alphabet alone plans over $205 billion in capex this year—and SanDisk has locked in long‑term supply agreements worth at least $42 billion, with floors and ceilings to smooth volatility. Technical risks remain: the stock has fallen below its 50‑day EMA and formed a head‑and‑shoulders pattern, suggesting a possible drop to $1,000. However, strong earnings could easily override those bearish signals.
