Galaxy Research has slashed the odds of the CLARITY Act passing this year to just 30%, down from 50%, as the Senate faces a critical deadline of July 30 to begin floor proceedings before the August recess. The urgent warning comes after Senate Republicans released an updated 616-page combined version of the crypto market-structure bill, which now includes government ethics restrictions, law-enforcement provisions, and changes to the GENIUS Act. Despite the concessions, seven Democrats involved in the negotiations—including Sens. Warner, Alsobrooks, and Booker—stated the proposal still “falls short,” leaving the bill shy of the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster.
Galaxy’s Alex Thorn declared, “The time for incremental negotiations is over. We need a last-ditch effort.” Republicans control 53 seats but face opposition from Sens. Josh Hawley and Rand Paul, while Sen. Mitch McConnell has not voted since his hospitalization, leaving roughly 50 dependable Republican votes. Majority Leader John Thune indicated he would “like to at least get Clarity started,” but the shrinking calendar and election-year politics make passage increasingly difficult. In response, the Digital Chamber, Crypto Council for Innovation, and Blockchain Association jointly urged Senate leadership to move the bill without resolving every disagreement, while the National Fraternal Order of Police and the National Black Church Initiative also endorsed the legislation.
Amid the legislative drama, JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citi unveiled a shared tokenized deposit network, demonstrating that Wall Street is continuing to build blockchain infrastructure regardless of regulatory uncertainty. The juxtaposition highlights the tension between a slowing legislative process and the industry’s momentum.
