A new dataset from CryptoRank paints a stark picture of post-2024 token launches: only 8 of the 113 tokens that reached and still hold a $100 million market cap are trading above their token generation event (TGE) price. The other 105 are underwater, and the median return across the entire group sits at -95.7%.
The figure undercuts recent headlines celebrating outliers like Hyperliquid (HYPE), up more than 1,500% from its November 2024 airdrop, and Ondo (ONDO), which is triple digits above its January 2024 TGE. Yet the concentration of gains is extreme — Hyperliquid and Ondo account for virtually all of the positive performance, while six of the eight survivors managed only double‑digit increases.
Worldcoin (WLD), one of 2024’s most hyped launches, is down roughly 97% from its peak even with a Grayscale ETF filing pending. Ondo’s gain depends on where one starts counting: from its 2025 listing it has fallen by half, and from its $2.14 December 2024 high it is down about 81%. The data reinforces that buying new listings at TGE has been close to a losing strategy by default.
The bleak base rate arrives alongside another trend: token discovery is fragmenting across platforms. Traders now move between DEX screeners, wallets, explorers and execution terminals, meaning a token launch can be technically successful yet remain almost invisible. PandaBoost, a crypto visibility platform, has responded with coordinated campaigns for projects across DEX Screener, DEXTools, GeckoTerminal, Phantom, Solscan, RugCheck, and trading terminals such as Axiom, Padre and GMGN. The service aims to tie a campaign to one verified token and pair, helping teams plan visibility around real events.
Both dynamics — the fragmented discovery landscape and the extreme concentration of gains — underline that this is not a broad altcoin season. Bitcoin dominance hovers near 56–57%, and the Altcoin Season Index remains in the mid‑40s to high‑50s, both still firmly in Bitcoin Season territory. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have channeled institutional capital into BTC, and what altcoin flows exist have clustered in a handful of liquid, catalyst‑driven names.
The survival rate is even worse than it first appears. CryptoRank’s sample excludes every launch that failed to reach or sustain a $100 million market cap, so the true failure rate across the entire universe of new tokens is far below 7.1%. A separate study from Memento Research found that 100 of 118 tokens launched in 2025 were already trading below their listing price, an 84.7% failure rate.
