Bitcoin's recent recovery may be a trap, according to pseudonymous analyst NoName, who warns that BTC could still be weeks away from its bear market low. In a July 28 post on X, the analyst compared current sentiment to the final decline in 2018, stating that many traders have stopped expecting lower prices because of the recent bounce. NoName pointed to an unfilled fair value gap (FVG) above the current price, which they believe will be filled before a final drop into the $39,000 to $49,000 range. The analyst, who sold near the 2025 all-time high around $117,000, maintains that the bear market still has "weeks left" before a bottom is reached.
A separate analysis from Ted Pillows ties Bitcoin's next major move to the Clarity Act. His chart outlines two scenarios: if the legislation is approved, Bitcoin could rally toward $75,000 or higher; rejection could send it down to $50,000. Bitcoin is currently holding above a key support zone between $59,800 and $61,400, with resistance at $66,000 and $70,000. A breakdown below $60,000 would shift focus to $50,000. Meanwhile, weekly chart analyst Jesse Olson projects a new low in the upper-$40,000 to low-$50,000 region by the end of August, accompanied by bullish divergence that could set the stage for a later recovery. Bitcoin currently trades near $63,000, down 3% over the past week and almost 50% below its all-time high of over $126,000.
Prediction market Kalshi gives a 55% probability of Bitcoin reaching $50,000 before reclaiming $100,000, reflecting ongoing uncertainty. Some traders, like KillaXBT, caution against waiting for an exact bottom, noting that similar calls for $10,000 in 2022 never materialized. The market remains divided as the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision looms.
