Bitcoin traded at $63,963 on July 30, down 2%, as a hawkish Federal Reserve policy hold and growing expectations of a September rate hike collided with a technical signal that historically precedes recoveries. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged, but the three dissenters favored an immediate hike, pushing the probability of a September increase to 72% in futures markets. August remains Bitcoin’s worst seasonal month, with a median return of -7.87% over 15 years of data, adding another layer of caution.
Four analysts reached four different conclusions about August after reading the same Fed decision. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) printed a bullish divergence at 39.30 against a signal line of 32.88, a setup that preceded prior cycle recoveries. One camp sees the RSI divergence outweighing macro headwinds; another insists the bearish seasonal pattern and monetary tightening will dominate.
Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen highlighted unseen macro risks despite positive inflation data. The June PCE Price Index fell 0.1% month-over-month, core PCE rose only 0.1% year-on-year, and GDP grew 1.5% annually, while jobless claims stayed low at 197,000. However, Cowen pointed to the internal FOMC split and the fact that 2-year Treasury yields are rising above the policy rate, which weakens the restrictive effect of tightening. He warned that a hot labor market could rekindle inflation and trigger a surprise rate hike in the second half of 2026 or September, a move that would act as a “cold shower” for investors and accelerate a flight from risky assets. Cowen believes Bitcoin’s true bottom may not arrive until the fourth quarter, based on historical patterns.
The conflicting signals—a technical bullish divergence inside a macro bearish structure—leave traders bracing for a volatile August.
