SpaceX shares experienced a volatile week, rebounding on Friday after securing a $1.6 billion U.S. Space Force contract for 18 Falcon 9 launches, but still hovering near all-time lows ahead of key events. The stock, trading under ticker SPCX, rose about 1.96% intraday to near $114.76 before giving back gains, closing around $109 on continued pressure from an approaching earnings report and insider lock-up expiration.
The Space Force award, part of an "unprecedented two-month acquisition timeline" according to acquisition official Eric Zarybnisky, will see the Falcon 9 missions carry Pentagon satellites designed for airborne target detection and targeting. All launches are planned from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California through 2027. SpaceX has received at least $7 billion in Pentagon contracts this year, including $6.5 billion in satellite awards in May—$4.16 billion for moving target indicator satellites and $2.29 billion for communications satellites. The latest order reinforces Falcon 9's central role in defense missions, though officials acknowledge concerns about overreliance on a single contractor.
Despite the contract win, SPCX remains nearly 50% below its post-IPO high of $225.64 and about 15% below the $135 IPO price. Investors are focused on the company's first earnings report as a public entity on August 4, followed by the first lock-up expiration two days later, which will allow eligible shareholders to sell up to 20% of restricted holdings. The prospect of increased share supply has weighed on sentiment, contributing to a weekly decline of roughly 5%.
Adding to the uncertainty, The Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla executives have discussed options for separating the company’s China business in the event of a future merger with SpaceX. Elon Musk dismissed the report as "absurdly fake news," but speculation about a combination of the two companies has persisted. With SpaceX's growing defense ties and Tesla's extensive manufacturing in China, any merger would face significant regulatory and geopolitical hurdles. The Shanghai Gigafactory, with annual capacity exceeding 950,000 vehicles, accounts for more than half of Tesla's global deliveries, making any separation highly consequential.
Separately, the Federal Aviation Administration has proposed rule changes to accelerate commercial space launch approvals, targeting reusable rockets and high-frequency operations. Faster regulatory timelines could benefit SpaceX’s Falcon 9, Starship, and Starlink programs. Meanwhile, rival launch providers United Launch Alliance and Blue Origin face technical setbacks—ULA is reviewing a Vulcan booster separation issue, and Blue Origin's New Glenn is grounded after a May launchpad explosion—potentially strengthening SpaceX's near-term position. Wall Street analysts maintain an average 12-month price target of $236.71, with Morgan Stanley at $300.
