Several prominent crypto analysts and on-chain research firms are converging on a late-2026 timeline for the market's next cycle low, while cautioning that a final sell-off could materialize in the third quarter of this year.
Benjamin Cowen, a widely followed market strategist, warned that despite digital assets trading at their cheapest valuations since 2010 – currently 62% below fair value – the market has not yet capitulated. He expects one more downturn in Q3, driven by historically weak seasonal performance and rising bond yields that make speculative assets less attractive. Cowen sees the possibility of a bear market phase starting within two to three weeks, with the cycle bottom eventually forming around November 2026.
On-chain data providers add weight to this outlook. Glassnode identifies Q3 as a possible range for accumulation, while a Mudrex report points to October–December 2026 as the most probable bottoming window, estimating a potential low between $50,000 and $55,000 for Bitcoin. The analysis references Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle: the most recent halving occurred in April 2024, and historically bottoms have formed 24–28 months later, aligning with mid-to-late 2026. Benjamin Cowen, PlanB, CryptoQuant, and Glassnode all reportedly agree on a Q4 2026 low.
However, the projected timing could slip. Mudrex cautions that a deterioration in the macroeconomic environment, a deep recession, or a regulatory crackdown might push the final low into early 2027. Another scenario envisions an earlier bottom if spot ETF demand absorbs selling pressure, but this would require an unprecedented shift in demand-supply dynamics. The Motley Fool further flags quantum computing as a long-term risk, though the approval of BIP-360 in February 2026 is a step toward quantum resistance.
For investors, the forecast underscores continued volatility in the coming months, with the potential for both final capitulation and eventual accumulation opportunities. The key takeaway is that near-term headwinds remain, and a sustainable recovery may not begin until late 2026 at the earliest.
