Bitcoin’s price has struggled to sustain a breakout above the $66,000 level, retreating to around $62,600, according to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode. The firm noted weak demand in spot markets and cautious positioning in derivatives, which are weighing on the price. However, strong conviction from long-term holders, rising on-chain activity, and renewed ETF inflows are providing structural support.
Glassnode's report highlighted that Bitcoin’s failure to hold the $65,000 region reflects weakening spot market momentum. Net selling pressure and low trading volume keep BTC in a consolidation phase with limited breakout potential. In derivatives markets, open interest has declined, but funding rates in perpetual futures ticked higher. Options market data showed a widening of the 25‑degree delta skew, indicating increased demand for downside protection, while speculative short positions continued to shrink.
A brighter picture emerged in the spot Bitcoin ETF market. Net inflows and trading volumes recovered over the past week, suggesting institutional investors are again gaining exposure through regulated products. On-chain data also picked up, with daily active addresses and asset-adjusted transaction volume exceeding the upper bound of Glassnode’s statistical range, signaling a meaningful increase in network usage and economic activity. The limited inflow of new capital helped offset some selling pressure.
Meanwhile, oil prices have surged to multi-month highs due to supply constraints and geopolitical tensions, fueling broader inflation concerns. This is lowering the probability of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, as reflected in the CME FedWatch tool. A stronger dollar and diminished liquidity typically weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin. The tug-of-war between ETF inflows and macro headwinds has kept Bitcoin range‑bound, with analysts suggesting a breakout above resistance is unlikely until there is clarity on the Fed’s policy path.
Despite the near-term uncertainty, the proportion of short-term to long-term holders remains near historic lows, indicating that long-term Bitcoin investors are holding firm. However, overall market profitability is declining, with the profitable supply share nearing cyclical lows and investors showing a tendency toward cut‑loss behavior. Glassnode concluded that the market is in a transitional phase: structural support from long-term holders, on-chain activity, and ETFs coexists with headwinds from insufficient spot demand, valuation pressure, and defensive derivatives positioning.
